Research can't predict the future... but it can help

The exert below is from an article talking about the pitfalls of using research to inform future decision making. This particular passage focuses on the banking sector and how research pointed the major banks in the wrong direction. To be honest, I agree with lot of what is said in this article and I'm firm believer in fact that consumers don't know what products will be successful in the future.

Another example where market research got the future wrong is banking. In
1996 most CEOs of large banks dismissed the Internet as an irrelevance, a
plaything of enthusiasts with no real impact on future profitability. Market
research strongly confirmed their scepticism. The overwhelming majority of
customers said they weren't interested in using the Internet to run their bank
accounts.But since when have the general public been experts in global
technology and financial services trends? How could they possibly be expected to
form an opinion about web banking when most still doubted their need to be
on-line?

However, I think whoever conducted the research for the major banks made a fundamental mistake in the way they approached this issue. Rather than focusing the product 'online banking' in the research, they should have been focusing on consumer needs and how they manifest themselves in the banking sector. Undoubtedly, the need for 'convenience' would come up as key need that back then would have been met by ATMs, open hours, branches etc, etc. The researchers then should have asked themselves, will online banking meet this consumer need for convenience. Well it doesn't take a rocket scientist to answer that question.

The worrying thing about the above case study is the fact that the users of the research listened explicitly to what consumers said and took it as gospel. If you do that you end up with the 'homer dream car' - a car designed by consumers that NO consumers want! The lesson here is that consumers don't always know what's best for them, especially when you're talking about what's best for them in the future. If you are making decisions for the future use research to explore what they are looking for in terms of benefits/ needs and then use your brain to retro fit new products/ technology to those benefits/ needs.